#数字资产市场动态 The ratio trend between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold has experienced a historic turning point. After reading this analysis, and comparing it with recent on-chain movements, I am increasingly convinced of one thing: the flow of capital is shifting secretly, and crypto assets are becoming the core stage for the collision of old and new capital.

The logic is actually simple:

After the three previous inflection points of the Dow/GOLD ratio, gold outperformed US stocks by nearly ten years on average. This time, the signal is even more intense—viewed from a historical perspective, safe-haven assets are about to undergo a long-term revaluation.

On-chain data never lies. BTC whales increased their holdings by over 8% in the past week. This group of "smart money" never waits for news to be everywhere before starting to position.

The current macro environment is somewhat special: the Federal Reserve has started a rate-cut cycle, global debt pressures are emerging, and US stock valuations are already at high levels. There are only three exit routes for capital—continue to pour into US stocks, flow into gold, or rush into crypto assets. The first two options are already overcrowded, and the crypto market is the only container that can both offer "risk premium" and tell the "safe-haven story."

My judgment remains unchanged:

In the short term, BTC may still fluctuate with US stock sentiment. But in the second half of this cycle, it will gradually free itself from the constraints of US stocks, start to operate independently according to gold logic, and forge its own safe-haven path.

As institutions shift from US stocks to safe-haven assets, there will inevitably be an excess flow into the crypto space—especially for BTC, which is inherently labeled as a "store of value," and decentralized reserve assets.

Don’t be shaken off by the current volatility. The fluctuations during the inflection point are just noise from capital rebalancing, which is perfectly normal.

In practical terms, it’s very straightforward:

Hold onto spot positions, buy more BTC and ETH when prices dip—these are core assets. Keep some stablecoins in reserve, ready to take over when key levels are broken, but don’t bet on shorting and fighting the trend to the death.

During moments of historical turning points, most people look at sentiment, few look at the framework. This time, I choose to look at the framework.

A bull market is born from pessimism, grows amid divergence, and matures in consensus. We are now in the second stage. $BTC