#美联储货币政策 Recently, there has been discussion about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Many are expecting a market rally, but I want to share an observation: rate cuts alone do not guarantee that the market will rise as expected.

This decision by the Federal Reserve is more like a carefully considered signal rather than a complete policy shift. They have raised economic growth forecasts and lowered inflation expectations, but at the same time, they imply that the threshold for further easing is higher. In other words, the improvement in liquidity is limited. The data also speaks—while institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, retail investors are still reducing theirs, which is suppressing the upward momentum.

A more realistic point is that as the year-end approaches, Christmas and the annual settlement period are usually the times when liquidity in the crypto market is at its worst. Over 50% of options positions are accumulated by the end of the year, market volatility expectations are decreasing, and sentiment is weak. This means that short-term policy favorable factors may not be enough to change the overall situation.

Experience tells me that the truly prudent approach is: not to be swayed by short-term policy news, manage positions well, and maintain sufficient cash reserves to cope with periods of poor liquidity. The market at year-end is prone to unexpected fluctuations, and adequate defense is more important than blindly chasing gains. In the long run, improvements in policy will eventually show their value, but the premise is that we must live sufficiently prudently and go far enough.