The four-hour trend of XRP is brewing a reversal—whether it will break above 1.9 or fall below 1.8 is still unclear. But a recent piece of news is worth pondering: an XRP treasury institution with a high-level executive background is currently showing an unrealized loss of over $220 million.

Their holdings are eye-catching: holding 389 million XRP, with an initial cost close to $950 million, now only valued at $720 million. With such a large gap, why haven't they dumped? Either they are betting on a bull market to recover, or there is a deeper strategic layout behind the scenes—this needs to be figured out.

From a candlestick perspective, the MACD is brewing a bullish crossover from a death cross, indicating a short-term rebound signal. On the resistance side, 1.876 is the first hurdle for a rebound, and 1.95 is a strong resistance zone, making a one-time breakthrough unlikely. Support levels should not break below 1.825; if it falls below, then watch whether the 1.77 area can hold. Currently, XRP is oscillating around 1.86, with trading volume clearly shrinking, both bulls and bears are watching— a reversal is imminent.

Trading strategy ideas: in the 1.876-1.9 zone, consider reducing positions or lightly shorting with a target of 1.83-1.825. Conversely, if the price pulls back to 1.77-1.78 and stabilizes, you can lightly go long, aiming for a rebound to 1.85. The core rule is: don't bet heavily on the direction; try small positions to test, and add gradually once the trend is confirmed.

In my personal view, in the short term, the price is likely to surge first to test 1.876, possibly even reaching around 1.9, but breaking through 1.95 in one go is quite difficult. Such a large loss by the institution actually sends a signal—selling pressure should be limited, as they usually won't cut losses easily. But it also indicates that there is a lack of new capital inflow in the short term, making the market prone to a quick rise and fall.