【Crypto World】There is an interesting phenomenon called the “Santa Claus Rally”—starting from the last five trading days of December, plus the first two trading days of January, the S&P 500 index has an extraordinarily high probability of rising during this period. Historically, nearly 80% of the years follow this pattern.
Even more surprisingly, as long as the market performs well during these days, the entire following year often continues to rise. Statistics show that the gains usually reach double digits, with five instances even exceeding 20%. This indicates that market trends at the end and beginning of the year can sometimes predict the overall trend for the year—although past data does not guarantee future performance, this pattern is indeed worth paying attention to.
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DaoGovernanceOfficer
· 7h ago
ngl this "santa claus rally" thing is just survivorship bias dressed up as market wisdom. the data suggests those 80% years probably exclude all the times it didn't work... empirically speaking, you're cherry-picking a 7-day window. what about the other 358 days? 🤓
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FreeRider
· 7h ago
80% probability? Come on, every time someone brings up historical data, and then they get proven wrong in the end.
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TokenomicsTinfoilHat
· 7h ago
80% chance? Is that real? Can you believe this trick? I heard a similar statement last year, and what was the result?
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LiquidationWizard
· 7h ago
80% chance? Isn't that just a stable cash machine? Why does it seem like not many people are really making money?
The "Christmas Magic" of the S&P 500: Historical Data Reveals Year-End Market Patterns
【Crypto World】There is an interesting phenomenon called the “Santa Claus Rally”—starting from the last five trading days of December, plus the first two trading days of January, the S&P 500 index has an extraordinarily high probability of rising during this period. Historically, nearly 80% of the years follow this pattern.
Even more surprisingly, as long as the market performs well during these days, the entire following year often continues to rise. Statistics show that the gains usually reach double digits, with five instances even exceeding 20%. This indicates that market trends at the end and beginning of the year can sometimes predict the overall trend for the year—although past data does not guarantee future performance, this pattern is indeed worth paying attention to.