Recently, a DeFi researcher Ignas organized a set of market consensus for 2026 within the community, which is quite interesting. Let's discuss these viewpoints.

First, Bitcoin. BTC will still outperform the market, and almost no one disputes this. However, the threat of quantum computing is not just a theoretical risk; it’s a real and present danger. This potential technological risk is indeed worth paying attention to.

As for altcoins, most will continue to bleed. First, because token issuance is too aggressive (high emissions), and second, retail investors and institutions are not very interested, resulting in many tokens likely ending up worthless. Don’t expect a comprehensive altcoin season like in 2021 to return; it’s basically impossible.

The concentration of gains will be particularly high—besides Bitcoin, only a few winners will truly rise. The judgment of "depth without breadth" still holds pretty well. But there’s a hidden risk: governance conflicts within Aave have already cast a shadow over the entire DeFi token sector.

The evaluation logic is also changing. The market is no longer just looking at narrative stories but is starting to use "enterprise valuation" methodologies to assess protocols. Of course, the privacy coin rally led by $ZEC has somewhat cooled this trend, serving as a strong counterexample.

What token holders can actually get—rights and income potential—has become a core issue. Especially when comparing tokens to equity, this discussion will not end in 2025 but will extend into 2026.

Another big pitfall to watch out for: tokens with extremely high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) but very low circulating supply, which are long-term good targets for shorting.

On-chain real-world assets (RWA) and tokenization will grow explosively, no doubt. The problem is—there are hardly any truly effective assets to bet on this trend in the market. Projects like Plasma and Stablecoin tokens are typical examples of "bad TGE."

Finally, prediction markets and perpetual contracts will push financialization to the extreme, turning everything from real-world events to pre-IPO assets into tradable objects. This trend is already irreversible.