The precious metals market ended 2025 with a record-breaking rally. During the Christmas week, international gold and silver prices hit all-time highs—COMEX gold futures surged past $4,525 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 70%; spot silver reached a peak of $72.68 per ounce, nearly a 140% increase for the year, marking the best performance since 1979. The domestic market moved in sync, with Shanghai gold futures breaking the 1,000 yuan/gram mark, and branded pure gold jewelry quotes surpassing 1,400 yuan/gram. The surge in precious metals swept through global capital markets.

As the Christmas holiday concluded, market liquidity gradually recovered. The subsequent trend will feature a prominent characteristic: a coexistence of mid-term continuation and short-term volatility. What exactly is driving this?

**Macroeconomic easing becomes the foundation for the rise**

U.S. economic data released clear signals. In November, core CPI fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate hit a four-year high, indicating a cooling labor market and signs of easing inflation. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 have been continuously raised. The dollar index has declined 9% year-to-date, currently touching a low of 97.7. U.S. Treasury yields remain oscillating in the 3.95%-4.19% range. Against this backdrop, the appeal of non-yielding precious metals continues to rise.

Deeper changes are occurring in global central banks. Since 2022, central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually. The role of gold is transforming—from a passive reserve asset to an active collateral in a multi-track global settlement system, significantly elevating its strategic importance.

**Safe-haven demand continues to drive**

Geopolitical tensions are also ongoing. Confrontations between the U.S. and Venezuela, tensions in the Caribbean—these are not isolated events. In the long-term context of reshaping the global geopolitical landscape, safe-haven capital keeps flowing into precious metals. Coupled with rising U.S. debt risks and persistent concerns over fiscal sustainability, the relative attractiveness of dollar assets is waning. Capital is shifting toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold, and this force should not be underestimated.

**Silver’s supply and demand story is more complex**

Gold is mainly driven by financial attributes, but silver is different. It carries a dual logic of "industrial + investment." The global silver market has been in a shortage for four consecutive years, with an expected deficit of 8,800 tons in 2025. Inventory-to-consumption ratios are only 0.75, indicating significant supply-side rigidity. This supply-demand imbalance directly translates into an industrial attribute premium, boosting silver’s upward momentum.

Starting from historic highs, the story of the precious metals market is far from over. Macroeconomic liquidity, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and supply-demand structures—these three forces are intertwined. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the medium-term trend is already pointing in a clear direction.