The afternoon rally is indeed eye-catching, but we must stay alert.

There’s nothing ordinary about today’s market. Early on, it was bouncing around $84,408, struggling to break through. Then suddenly in the afternoon, there was a fierce surge, directly breaking the $87,800 resistance level. The bulls are indeed gathering strength. Although the 24-hour decline is still 1.5%, this kind of low-level rebound has eased the market’s nerves.

Don’t rush to celebrate. Over the years in this circle, I’ve seen too many false alarms of rebounds. Rationally speaking, the current situation contains both the possibility of a rebound and significant risks.

**How fragile is the market really?**

The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 24, firmly in "Extreme Fear" territory. Historically, such extreme sentiment often provides the soil for a rebound — but it could also be just a breather amid a decline.

The fundamentals are not very optimistic. Bitcoin ETF funds have been bleeding out over the past few days, with a net outflow of $188.6 million just on December 23 alone. This marks the fourth consecutive day of net outflows, indicating institutional investors are still exiting. More painfully, where are these fleeing funds flowing? Into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. This signal is clear — the market still lacks genuine confidence in risk assets.

**The "death signal" on the technical side**

From the chart, Bitcoin is currently trapped below a downward trendline extending from the all-time high of $126,000. Whether it can effectively break through this line is key to judging how far the rebound can go.

Even more concerning is the daily chart pattern — the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a classic "death cross." This is a hallmark of medium-term bearishness, indicating that short-term upward momentum may struggle to sustain.

Can today’s afternoon rally reverse the situation? Technically, it needs to break through that downward trendline convincingly, accompanied by increased trading volume. Otherwise, it’s just a rebound, not a reversal.