【Market Diary】The Fear Index drops to 28, but this might just be the turning point.

Recently, the market has been a bit crazy—retail investors are all cutting losses, and market sentiment has hit rock bottom. But think about it carefully, isn’t this scene very familiar? Every time there’s deep panic, it’s actually a signal that smart money is quietly entering the market. While others are crying, we need to learn to be greedy.

What’s the macro outlook? Last night’s initial jobless claims data was good, dropping to 214,000, indicating that the US economy is still quite resilient, which temporarily suppressed expectations of rate cuts. Interestingly, the leading candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett, is clearly dovish on rate cuts. This expectation gap creates a game of tug-of-war, which is bound to cause intense volatility—this is actually an opportunity for traders.

The key signal is here. On-chain data shows that the address associated with Multicoin Capital has injected $30 million via OTC to buy WLD. Meanwhile, retail investors are all complaining about why it’s still falling. But think about it, when do institutions build positions? It’s always on the left side. This is no coincidence.

Currently, Bitcoin is stuck around 87,000, with open interest (OI) reaching 42 billion—too heavy. The market needs a thorough leverage cleanup. My judgment is that the range between 86,000 and 88,000 is where the main players are patiently waiting. In the short term, you can try to rebound near the bottom of the 15-minute chart of Bitcoin, around 86,500, but keep the position light, and set strict stop-losses. If macro positive news (like Hassett’s nomination finally being confirmed) pushes the price above 89,000, then the wave C rally might be about to begin.

The second coin (altcoin) remains weak, with the exchange rate constantly hitting new lows—that’s a typical “bloodsucking market.” The safest approach is to follow Bitcoin’s rhythm; currently, altcoins lack independent logic. Unless the RWA sector (Circle recently issued gold and silver tokens) or prediction markets (rumors of a token launch on Polymarket) create a new trend, avoid catching falling knives.

Regarding WLD, since institutions are involved, this level is a strong demand zone on the daily chart. You can hold a small position for observation, but never go all-in. If it breaks below the previous low, cut losses immediately.

Final words: Trading is not gambling. In this market, patience is worth gold.