Novice traders often make one common mistake: always worrying about the win rate of a single trade. But honestly, win rate is not the thing that determines how far you can go.

What truly makes a difference is whether you have probabilistic thinking.

No trade has absolute certainty. No matter how perfect the pattern or how rigorous the logic, you can only say "this direction is more promising," but cannot guarantee a profit. The market won't give you a pass just because you analyze carefully.

The difference between experts and ordinary traders is actually quite straightforward. Some gamble on the win or loss of individual trades, while others repeatedly make long-term advantageous choices. The traders who can truly survive often have unremarkable-looking operations. Having a slight edge in method is enough, no need for perfection; trade enough times, and don’t let a couple of wins or losses mess with your mindset; most importantly, lock in the risk first, so one mistake doesn’t wipe you out immediately.

Many people think the difficulty lies in technical analysis. Actually, that’s not the hardest part. The real tests are:

Can you recognize that losses are part of trading?

Can you operate according to rules without overreacting when there’s no certain answer?

Can you stay calm, patient, and steady during consecutive unfavorable situations?

Ultimately, trading is a long-term process of self-companionship. Who can maintain rationality and discipline in a probabilistic world will ultimately determine which side they stand on.