Ethereum spot ETF net outflow of $95.53 million may seem like a ripple in the crypto market, but if you only focus on exchange data, you're missing the real story behind it—that is the battle between Federal Reserve monetary policy and the macroeconomy.

Many traders habitually look for explanations within the crypto circle but overlook a fundamental fact: crypto assets are essentially risk assets. Their price movements are deeply linked to the strength of the dollar and Federal Reserve policies. When the Fed raises interest rates and the dollar strengthens, capital naturally flows out of risk assets and back into dollar assets; conversely, during a rate-cut cycle, the dollar depreciates, and large amounts of capital flood into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Recent turning points are crucial. When the US March CPI data was released, showing a year-over-year increase of 3.5%, it broke the market expectation of 3.4%. The core CPI even reached 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%. Once these figures were announced, market enthusiasm for Fed rate cuts instantly cooled. Previously, institutions generally predicted that the rate-cut cycle would start in June, but now the sentiment has shifted—September has become the new consensus, with more pessimistic voices even pointing to next year.

As expectations change, market actions follow suit. Funds have begun to systematically withdraw from risk assets, and the net outflow from Ethereum spot ETF is a direct reflection of this systemic adjustment. This is not a short-term fluctuation triggered by a single negative event, but a process of macroeconomic re-pricing of risk assets.