#数字资产市场动态 Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the market: the RMB breaking through the "7" threshold, while USDT surprisingly shows a negative premium. This actually reflects a battle of multiple forces behind the scenes.

First, the reason for the RMB breaking 7.0. The Fed's rate cut expectations put pressure on the dollar, which is an external factor; domestically, a surge in foreign exchange settlement flows led to a significant increase in bank foreign exchange settlements in December, with unconverted surplus releasing, causing changes in supply and demand; plus, the central bank uses tools like counter-cyclical factors and offshore bond issuance to smooth fluctuations. These three forces work together, causing the RMB to break through.

The negative premium of USDT is even more worth pondering. It reflects dramatic changes in the cryptocurrency market—risk appetite is reversing, with large amounts of capital flowing back to traditional markets; regulatory tightening has led to a noticeable decline in OTC trading volume, compressing arbitrage opportunities; companies now prefer to hold fiat currency directly, weakening the substitutive role of stablecoins. These series of changes are beginning to form a new price discovery mechanism between the crypto and fiat markets.

Interestingly, these two phenomena are linked. The onshore and offshore price gap is narrowing, forming a "double helix" structure. For foreign trade companies, they might consider a "currency range hedging" strategy; crypto investors should pay attention to arbitrage opportunities; institutional investors tend to use interest rate swaps to hedge risks.

On a broader level, the global monetary system is undergoing a new round of "decentralization versus centralization" battles, behind which is the contest for digital currency pricing power and the promotion of RMB internationalization. By 2026, the policy direction of the Fed, the actual effects of cross-border wealth management schemes, and the regulatory framework for stablecoins—these three variables deserve close attention. The precision of asset allocation can only become more refined.