IBEX 35 in 2025: Breaks the 17,000 barrier or consolidates at resistance?

The Spanish selective index is experiencing its best moment in years. Between mid-November and December 2025, the IBEX 35 has surprised with an extraordinary performance. The index has touched and even temporarily surpassed 17,000 points—something unprecedented in its history—and closed around 16,850, confirming that the bullish momentum remains intact. This 37% rally since the beginning of the year places the IBEX above European benchmarks like the DAX and CAC 40, attracting both local and international investors.

What is driving this rise?

The main engine has been the financial sector. Banco Santander, BBVA, and CaixaBank—together representing more than 26% of the index—have reported results exceeding expectations, driven by wider interest margins. But the rally is not just about banks.

Inditex (15.48% of the IBEX) regained prominence after moments of weakness, while Iberdrola (13.83%) benefited from its ambitious €100 billion investment plan until 2031, focused on renewable networks in the UK and the US. Industrial stocks like Ferrovial and Sacyr also accelerated, reflecting confidence in economic reactivation.

Favorable macro context also helped: moderate inflation in the Eurozone (1.9%), expectations of new ECB rate cuts after summer, and political stability in Spain following government formation. The result: persistent risk appetite that encouraged maintaining long positions.

Key technical levels for upcoming movements

The IBEX faces a crossroads in the coming weeks (December 15 to January 15):

Main resistances: 17,000 – 17,200 points (psychological barrier already broken, but with volatility)

First support: 16,600 – 16,700 points (technical buy zone)

Bullish extension: 17,300 points (target if convincingly broken)

Without significant macroeconomic surprises, the index should consolidate within a range, oscillating between supports and resistances with greater stability than volatility. Analysts foresee a period of sideways movement with a positive bias rather than sharp declines.

A look at 2024: how the IBEX reached this point

To understand why the index is at all-time highs, it’s useful to review how this rally was built:

June: first signs of optimism
The IBEX started the month at 13,950 points. The ECB rate cut to 2% (June 5) prompted a jump to 14,200, but Inditex reported weak sales on June 11, causing panic and dragging 40 points from the index. Israeli attacks on Iran (June 13) pushed oil prices higher, ending the month at 13,910 with risk-off volatility. Inflation fell to 1.9%, but geopolitical uncertainty dampened enthusiasm.

July: banking takeoff
The IBEX began at 14,800 and steadily climbed. US rate cuts improved global sentiment, and Spanish banks shined (BBVA and Iberdrola led). By month-end, the index exceeded 15,200 points—levels not seen since 2007—in a nearly mechanical economic reactivation movement.

August: consolidation at highs
From 14,800 to 15,300 in a few weeks. The sector remains the anchor: Inditex posted solid results, boosting the index. The year-to-date return is around 37%. September 10 was particularly strong (up 1.25%), with Inditex leading while European tech lagged. Harmonized inflation remains at 2.7% YoY; core at 2.4%. The expectation of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September further fueled risk appetite.

September-October: pause, then breakout
Between mid-September and early October, the IBEX experienced minor technical pauses after the previous rally. However, mid-October saw a definitive break above 16,000 points, supported by results from BBVA, Santander, and CaixaBank that far exceeded expectations. The announcement that Ferrovial would join the Nasdaq-100 also attracted foreign flows. Improved investor sentiment towards the Spanish economy solidified the movement.

November-December: record high
The 17,000 level has been touched and exceeded at times. The close is near 16,850, with optimism about new positive catalysts that could continue pushing higher. The record is explained by sustained strength in financials, industrials, energy, and consumer sectors, as well as the attractiveness of dividends and share buybacks that attract foreign capital.

The biggest movements of the year: gains and declines

The largest increases were in the banking sector: Banco Sabadell (+68%), CaixaBank (+43%), Bankinter (+34%), and Unicaja (+30%). These gains reflect taking advantage of the high interest rate environment, which expands margins.

On the downside, some stocks suffered significant corrections, though moderate compared to other markets. The continuous market has absorbed volatility without panic.

And in the long term? The IBEX 35 in 2025-2030

Future trajectory will depend on several factors:

Economic growth: The Bank of Spain projects a GDP of 1.9% for 2025, driven by tourism, external sector, and employment. This is positive but moderate; private consumption and business investment need to rebound.

Monetary policy: Although the Fed is already cutting, the ECB may be more cautious. This limits stimulus for European companies and poses a risk to bank margins, which could compress if rates are cut significantly.

Opportunities in renewable energy: With the rise of artificial intelligence and data storage, electricity demand will grow. It’s estimated that by 2030, data centers will consume up to 3.2% of European electricity supply. Solaria, Acciona Energía, and Endesa are clear candidates to benefit.

Global risks: The probability of recession in the US and worldwide is estimated at 45% for 2025. This could generate volatility in stocks, and the IBEX—more sensitive to external shocks—would not be exempt. Gold has already risen over 20% in 2024 (forecasts of $2,700 per ounce in 2025), a historical sign of tension and uncertainty.

European stimuli: Draghi’s massive investment plan in digitization and decarbonization boosts renewables and technology, enhancing the resilience of the Spanish market.

Composition of the IBEX: where is the weight

The index is diversified, though concentrated in some large names:

• Inditex: 15.48% (fashion retail)
• Iberdrola: 13.83% (renewable energy)
• Banco Santander: 12.13% (banking)
• BBVA: 9.36% (banking)
• CaixaBank: 5.15% (banking)
• Amadeus IT Group: 5.08% (technology)
• Ferrovial: 4.75% (construction/infrastructure)
• Telefónica: 4.10% (telecommunications)
• Aena: 3.98% (airports)
• Cellnex: 3.86% (telecommunications)

By sectors: Financial services dominate (Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank), followed by energy (Iberdrola, Repsol, Endesa), technology-telecom (Telefónica, Cellnex, Amadeus), consumer goods (Inditex), and industrial-construction (Ferrovial, ACS).

Historical performance of the IBEX 35: long-term outlook

The IBEX has a volatile history, with explosive years (2022: +22.76%) and sharp corrections (2019: -15.45%). This pattern reflects sensitivity to global economic cycles and monetary policy decisions.

Volatility: characteristic of the IBEX

The IBEX 35 is inherently more volatile than other European indices due to its exposure to cyclical sectors (banking, energy). In 2024, its annual range was from 8,879 to 11,385 points, a significant amplitude. During crises, it falls more; in booms, it rebounds quickly. This offers both risk and opportunities for active traders, but requires discipline and risk management.

Verdict: Is the upward trend continuing or consolidating?

The IBEX 35 has built an impressive movement, based on solid fundamentals in banking and renewables, a moderately favorable macroeconomic context, and global risk appetite. The break above 17,000 points—historically significant—shows buying conviction.

However, consolidation at 16,850 also suggests that the market respects all-time highs. In the coming weeks (December-January), a lateral movement with an upward bias is most likely, oscillating between 16,600 and 17,200 while digesting gains.

Risks are clear: a 45% chance of global recession, bank margin compression if the ECB cuts aggressively, and geopolitical volatility. But opportunities in renewables and digitalization, along with European stimuli, give the IBEX fundamentals to maintain relevance in the long term.

For investors, the message is: avoid chasing all-time highs with leverage, but also avoid exiting the market. Consolidate positions, diversify between defensive (energy) and cyclical (banking) sectors, and watch key technical levels (support at 16,600, resistance at 17,300). The continuous market still offers opportunities for those who know how to trade within a range.