The key to predicting Bitcoin's price trend lies in which theoretical framework is adopted.

Supporters of the 4-year cycle theory point out that the movement from 87k breakthrough to 100k, then retracing to 30k, aligns with historical patterns. This theory emphasizes the cyclical repetition of the market.

However, from the perspective of business cycles and mainstream adoption, the story is quite different—after the 87k surge, it rises to 105k, then adjusts to 64k, with the ultimate target pointing to 250k. This logical chain emphasizes long-term growth potential.

Reality always lies between the two. Pure cycle theory ignores the acceleration of the adoption curve, while aggressive growth theory underestimates market volatility. What truly matters is the balance point between these two forces—cycles exist, but the height and amplitude of each cycle are changing.