Mid-December Financial Asset Technical Review: Increasing Bull-Bear Divergence, Be Cautious of These Levels

Employment Cooling Off Below Expectations, US Dollar Index Strengthens

Recently, signals of a potential slowdown have emerged in the US labor market. Non-farm payrolls in October plummeted by 105,000, and although November saw some recovery with an increase of 64,000, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, hitting a four-year high. The market initially expected such weak data to reinforce the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in January next year, but the actual reaction was the opposite—investors’ optimism about further rate cuts has noticeably cooled.

As a result, the US dollar index has gained some breathing room. From a technical perspective, the dollar index found significant support at the 98.0 level and then rebounded. After briefly touching a low of 97.8 on Tuesday, it quickly rose above 98.2 and challenged the 98.5 level. Notably, the dollar index halted its decline and rebounded at the Gann 2/1 line, indicating short-term indecision between bulls and bears.

Technical Outlook: If the dollar index effectively breaks below the key support at 98.0, the next target will be 95.2. Conversely, to change the downward trend, it needs to break above the resistance at 99.3.

Key Levels:

• Support: 98.0, 96.5, 95.2
• Resistance: 98.5, 99.3, 100.0

Gold Trends Cool Down, Upward Pressure Clearly Present

On Wednesday, gold rose slightly by 0.36%, reaching a high of $4342, but repeatedly failed to break above $4350. This indicates strong selling pressure overhead and increased short-term consolidation needs. The market may fluctuate within the range of 4220 to 4300.

However, from a larger cycle perspective, the upward trend of gold remains intact and has not truly reversed. Once it surpasses $4381, it is expected to test levels of $4438 and even $4570 consecutively. Conversely, to completely reverse the rally, gold needs to fall below $4200 to confirm a trend change.

Technical Outlook: Short-term consolidation, with the medium- to long-term upward pattern still in place.

Key Levels:

• Support: 4300, 4220, 4130
• Resistance: 4381, 4438, 4570

WTI Crude Oil Still Facing Correction Pressure

WTI crude oil rose by 1.16% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $56.09. This follows four consecutive days of decline, which brought prices to a four-year low. The rebound after such oversold conditions is a correction, but downward risks remain.

If the rebound is capped at $57.0, crude oil may continue to test lows of $55.0 and even $52.0. Only a clear breakthrough above $59.0 can change the medium-term downtrend.

Technical Outlook: Short-term rebound is possible, but medium-term risks of further decline persist.

Key Levels:

• Support: 55.0, 52.5
• Resistance: 57.0, 59.0, 61.5

Nasdaq 100: Downward Momentum Strengthening, Rebound May Signal Turning Point

The Nasdaq is currently consolidating around 25,200 points, temporarily supported. However, the AO indicator shows increasing downward momentum, suggesting that the upcoming rebound may lack sustained strength, warranting caution.

If the rebound fails to break above 25,500 points, there is a chance to further test support at 25,000 and even 24,000.

Technical Outlook: Be alert to weak rebounds; downside risks have not been fully eliminated.

Key Levels:

• Support: 25,200, 24,900, 24,000
• Resistance: 26,000, 26,300, 27,600

Risk Reminder

Multiple assets are showing short-term consolidation characteristics. Under the macro background, Federal Reserve policy expectations are fluctuating, and the US Treasury yield chart remains an important window for monitoring monetary policy. Investors are advised to closely watch key data releases during the week and exercise caution regarding potential breakouts across different asset classes.