Gold Price Analysis Today, November 17: Trends and Key Drivers

Current Gold Situation: A Tug of War Between Two Forces

Gold is currently facing a real technical battle after a strong sell-off on Friday, as the precious metal tries to regain footing near the 4,060-4,080 USD per ounce range. Despite a slight recovery attempt at the start of Monday’s session, the price faced ongoing pressure that pushed it back down. This pattern reflects an imbalance in the market between two completely opposing factors: one supporting gold as a safe haven, and the other exerting downward pressure due to a strong dollar and declining easing prospects.

Factors Pressuring Gold: Federal Tightening and Dollar Strength

Traders significantly reduced their expectations for a rate cut in December. The odds of a 25 basis point cut dropped from 50% to 46% over the past week, indicating a gradual shift in market expectations. This change followed hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve members, emphasizing the importance of a firm approach to inflation without rushing easing steps.

This stance diminishes gold’s appeal, which yields no interest, especially when real yields are rising. Meanwhile, the dollar index maintained its strength against a basket of major currencies, making gold less attractive to buyers outside the US dollar zone.

Factors Supporting Gold: Economic Weakness and Uncertainty

In contrast to these pressures, gold remains strongly supported by two factors. First, increasing concerns over a slowdown in US economic momentum, especially amid the long government shutdown. Second, the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy path in the coming weeks. Some analysts believe that pressure on the Fed could intensify if economic data reveal genuine weakness, potentially bringing the easing scenario back to the forefront.

Key Economic Data This Week

A series of economic data releases are expected to play a crucial role in guiding the direction of gold and the overall market. Traders rely on these figures as key indicators of economic bottlenecks.

Non-Farm Payrolls (Thursday): This report is the most significant economic event of the week, especially after a two-week hiatus from official data. Investors expect to see a clear slowdown in employment growth. Any noticeable weakness in the numbers will strongly reintroduce the rate cut hypothesis.

Personal Income and Spending Data: These figures provide insight into the health of the US consumer, the main driver of economic activity. Weak income or declining spending will be seen as clear signals of a deeper economic slowdown.

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes (Wednesday): This document will be key to understanding internal discussions and the true stance of committee members regarding the interest rate path.

Price Performance Analysis and Technical Levels

Gold is currently declining through a clear correction wave after failing to hold higher levels. The price retreated from the resistance zone at 4,245 USD, which proved to be a strong barrier, to trade near 4,054 USD amid controlled selling pressure. This follows its retreat from the recent high at 4,381 USD.

The RSI indicator shows a clear weakening of buying momentum, with the index dropping toward 38, indicating the price is entering a weakness phase that could continue unless strong reversal signals appear. Increased trading volumes during the decline confirm sellers’ dominance over the technical picture.

Main Technical Levels:

Support Zones:

• 4,054 USD: The first and closest barrier to the current price
• 4,000 USD: A vital psychological level often witnessing strong reactions
• 3,928 USD: The strongest support point and potential historical rebound zone

Resistance Zones:

• 4,245 USD: The main barrier that halted the rally
• 4,320 USD: A secondary but influential level
• 4,381 USD: The recent highs; breaking above confirms a return to an upward trend

Investor Behavior and Liquidity Indicators

SPDR Gold Trust holdings decreased by 0.47%, reaching 1,044 tons. This decline indicates liquidity exiting the market and some investors’ sentiment weakening in the short term. However, it’s important to note that a decrease in holdings alone does not determine the overall trend, especially during periods of political and monetary uncertainty.

In practical terms, demand in Asian markets, especially India, has noticeably weakened. India recorded its largest demand drop in five months, reflecting that consumers consider current prices relatively high.

Performance of Other Precious Metals

The precious metals market showed clear divergence. Silver rose about 0.8% to trade near 50.94 USD per ounce, benefiting from increased industrial demand, especially from solar energy and technology sectors. Platinum moved more slowly, up slightly by 0.1% to 1,542.37 USD, reflecting a balance between industrial demand and economic pressures. Palladium performed stronger, rising 1.2% to 1,401.50 USD, supported by selective buying and slight signs of activity improvement in the industrial sector.

Summary and Outlook

Gold is currently on the edge of a balance between two opposing forces: Federal tightening and dollar strength on one side, versus economic weakness and political uncertainty on the other. The flow of economic data this week will determine the direction of the precious metal. Weak data could give gold a strong upward push, while strong data, especially in the labor market, might force a deeper correction in the short term. The short-term technical outlook remains bearish as long as the price stays below 4,245 USD.