Although the Federal Reserve has systematically cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market has sensed something different. The dot plot indicates that the pace of rate cuts in 2026 may slow down, which is interpreted as a hawkish signal, causing investor sentiment to tighten immediately.

Adding insult to injury, Trump recently criticized the Federal Reserve for overspending $2.5 billion on the building renovation project, directly targeting the Fed's independent decision-making space. This is not just a budget dispute but also reflects subtle pressure from the White House on monetary policy. As Powell's term approaches in May 2026, this political pressure is bound to influence future policy directions.

What is the result? U.S. Treasury yields have soared to 4.2%, and the market is testing the 4.5% level. In the long run, the combination of inflation expectations and political uncertainty has become the main driver of bond market volatility.

In such macro tug-of-war, liquidity is being squeezed to the limit. Many investors are turning their attention to consensus-supported safe-haven assets, seeking an emotional outlet. Bitcoin, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, often attracts incremental capital in this environment.

Is this round of "political drama" an accelerator for a bull market or a turning point? The market is still voting with its actions.