#通胀与经济增长 Recently, I've been seeing discussions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, and I have some thoughts I'd like to share with everyone.

The direction of interest rates next year seems more complicated than we imagined. There are basically three ways to achieve a rate cut: wait for inflation to continue to decline, see deterioration in the labor market, or changes within the Federal Reserve's internal structure. But have you ever thought about what these variables mean for us ordinary investors?

The increasing uncertainty in economic policy is precisely the moment when we need to be more cautious. I often remind those around me not to be blinded by the optimistic expectations of rate cuts. History shows us that policy shifts are often accompanied by volatility, and those who are unprepared tend to suffer the greatest losses.

What is most important at this time? It's managing your own positions well. Don't put all your chips on a single expectation; instead, ensure your assets can remain relatively stable across different scenarios. Ask yourself a few questions: Can my allocation handle sticky inflation? What if the economy really weakens? Is the ratio of risk assets to defensive assets reasonable?

In the long run, the market will find equilibrium. Instead of obsessing over short-term policy changes, focus on building a solid asset framework. That way, no matter how the external environment changes, you can stay calm and steady.