#美联储降息预期 After looking at the Federal Reserve's latest measures, they indeed sent some positive signals—25 basis points rate cut along with $40 billion in short-term government bond purchases, providing liquidity support. But I want to share a calm observation: these positive signals have already been largely priced in by the market, and Bitcoin's price action has almost fully reflected the expectations of this rate cut.

The current situation is a bit more complex. With Christmas and the end of the year approaching, this period has traditionally been the most liquidity-tight time in the crypto market, and this year is no exception. You can feel it from options data—by the end of December, over 50% of positions are stacked, market participation has noticeably decreased, and volatility expectations are gradually declining. Some analyses suggest that a slow decline is the mainstream view, which precisely indicates that market sentiment remains quite cautious.

My advice is: don't be blinded by short-term positive news. During periods of poor liquidity and year-end settlement pressures, maintaining position discipline is especially important. You can watch for sudden reversal opportunities, but risk management is even more crucial. In the long run, improved financial conditions are a positive factor, but patience is needed to wait for genuine consensus formation. Being cautious is never wrong.