Christmas行情更多是情绪修复，而非趋势反转

12 月 22 日，cryptocurrency market this week started to recover, with the total market capitalization rising back to 3.086 trillion USD. On the surface, it seems like "the market is back," but structurally, this rally is more like a typical pre-holiday emotional recovery. First, during Christmas week, US stock trading hours are shortened, with early closing on Wednesday and a holiday on Thursday, leading to decreased liquidity in traditional markets. Capital risk appetite often temporarily increases, which can easily drive high-volatility assets to rebound. Second, the market experienced consecutive corrections earlier, with short-term profit-taking concentrated among bears, and technical indicators already showing a need for a rebound.

In terms of trading volume, the recovery has not been accompanied by significant volume increase. It is more about existing funds playing at low levels rather than new funds entering on a large scale. If this is the start of a new rally, we would typically see mainstream coins breaking out with volume, continuous capital inflows, and comprehensive emotional indicator recovery. However, these signals are currently insufficient. Therefore, a more reasonable judgment is that this is a technical rebound after "a big drop," where prices bounce back.

In terms of operation, it is not advisable to chase highs emotionally. It is more suitable to observe the strength and weakness during the rebound, and wait until after the holiday when capital flows back and macro expectations become clearer to confirm whether the trend has truly reversed.