Visa just reported that holiday shopping sales climbed 4.2% in the opening seven weeks—but here's the catch: the growth is noticeably slower than what we saw last year.

Why does this matter? Consumer spending is one of those bellwether indicators that tells you a lot about where the economy's actually headed. When holiday season momentum starts losing steam like this, it typically signals either tighter household budgets or shifting purchasing patterns.

For those tracking macro trends, this slowdown could foreshadow broader economic headwinds. Less retail velocity often gets reflected across multiple asset classes down the line. Worth keeping tabs on as we move into year-end earnings season.