Important Observation December 24, 2025

For friends who have been paying close attention, you should remember my judgment on November 21 at the 80,600 level—"The recent rally starting from 80,600 is essentially a rebound, not a new upward trend."

Yesterday, I emphasized again that if there is no strong upward movement within 12 hours, the situation will deteriorate. As expected, after falling to 86,600 last night and then rebounding, I immediately issued a warning: this rebound concerns the overall situation and will directly determine the next move.

Looking at the current rebound performance, it’s not very promising. Regarding BTC’s future direction, I’ve outlined two most likely scenarios.

**Blue Line Path**: The daily-level rebound initiated from 80,600 is not yet complete. In the coming days, after BTC finds the end of its correction, it will usher in a second wave of rally comparable in scale to the 80,600-94,600 move. This rally is expected to end around mid-January. After completing the rebound of the entire decline from 126,000 to 80,600, BTC will continue downward, likely bottoming out around March 2026.

**Red Line Path**: The rebound from 80,600 to 94,600 is actually just a correction of the decline from 107,500 to 80,600, not a correction of the 126,000-80,600 move. In this case, BTC would need to first break below 80,600 to create a new lower low before a daily-level rebound can be initiated.

Looking back, I fully caught the 80,600-94,600 rally. I also attempted at 85,000 and 86,500 points. Although not big profits, I made some small gains. The next strategy is to patiently observe the market, wait for the trend to truly emerge, and then follow up without rushing.

Honestly, I don’t have a particular target price obsession. Compared to stubbornly holding onto a specific point, I value what’s happening in the market right now more—using actual trends to infer the most probable development and then formulating corresponding trading plans. That’s what matters most to me.

Many traders lose big money because they preset a certain high or low point as "must be reached," and after being bound by this obsession, they lose sensitivity to risk. This mindset will eventually lead to suffering. My lessons over the past few years have been very deep. It’s still essential to let the market speak and not be dominated by your own guesses.