Recently watching "Lao Jiu," this episode about stamp collecting should serve as the most warning to friends who are considering financial investments.

Any commodity or security with free trading and investment attributes fundamentally revolves around supply and demand, and also human nature.

Lao Jiu's mindset of holding positions, not stopping losses, and adding to positions against the trend to recover costs, I experienced in 2018 and 2020 as well, and unfortunately both times ended with huge losses and exiting the market.

Only after truly suffering did I realize the wisdom of the older generation's thinking, which is what Auntie said: "As long as people are there," meaning "if people are preserved, land is preserved; if land is lost, both people and land are lost."

In fact, in the world of trading and investing, it's never about who earns more or whose "land" is bigger. Earning more certainly attracts attention and is highly glamorous, just like always anchoring to the historical high when looking at assets. Many people also anchor their identity and reputation to their highest moments in life due to the anchoring effect. This leads to an inability to cut losses and reluctance to do so, but the market can never be beaten, and mistakes are inevitable. No matter how glorious the past, once a mistake occurs, everything can be wiped out, which is meaningless, and ultimately results in "losing both people and land." This is the true essence of the investment and trading world: investing is a marathon, never a 100-meter dash. Unless you can run a 100-meter race, set a record, and never compete again— but is that really possible? Investing is an infinite game. When AI replaces labor-intensive jobs in the future, perhaps what remains for humans are selling emotional value, companionship services, and trading investments. The true limit of life is determined by ability, while the lower limit is determined by flaws and the ability to cut losses—this is both the "long board" theory and the "wooden barrel" theory.

That's why I often emphasize: "Correctly holding positions can also be wrong, and right can also be wrong; stopping losses correctly can also be right, and wrong can also be right," and the principle lies here.

Only through experiencing significant losses and gaining profound insights can one break free from the cycle of [glory - liquidation - glory - liquidation ... +∞]. The key to breaking this cycle is to cut losses and defend well: let profits run when correct, and cut positions without hesitation when wrong to save oneself.

Lao Jiu's tragedy is the routine life of ordinary people with lofty ambitions but low skills. It all started when his daughter casually mentioned wanting to buy a XiaLi car, which opened his Pandora's box. But as long as proper risk control and drawdown management are in place, avoiding greed and anger, taking profits in stages at high points, any possibility of drawdown leading to liquidation can be cut off.

Don't gamble with Schrödinger's cat; as long as there is a probability, complex and large systems will inevitably lead to tragedies. Your tragedy is the comedy of those who follow the trend.

This is Murphy's Law, and also the natural order $BTC #加密市场小幅回暖