#数字资产市场洞察 The oscillation pattern of the Christmas week has been set, and my Position allocation can explain everything.

Brothers, I just sorted through the latest on-chain data, and here's the conclusion: don't expect a big market trend before the holiday, we will continue to oscillate within the range, but there are clear opportunities in January.

The performance of BTC during this time is quite interesting—it's not rising, nor is it falling; it's just a flat line. Even though gold is soaring, Bitcoin hasn't really followed suit. Why is that? The on-chain data makes it clear. The open interest of perpetual contracts on mainstream exchanges dropped by tens of billions of dollars overnight, what does this indicate? Large funds are actively reducing leverage and withdrawing risk. No one is going to go all in at this point; everyone is on the sidelines. Additionally, with over 500,000 options set to expire this Friday, in such a low liquidity environment, it's easy for the market makers to manipulate, and both long and short positions can easily be washed out.

Many friends have asked me: "The historical volatility range during Christmas week is 5%-7%, will there be a sudden surge this year?" This is a good question, but the answer can be found by looking at the options data. The positions of call options at $100,000 have basically not decreased, but the $85,000 put options are being withdrawn. What does this mean? The market does not have much confidence in a surge, while also not daring to be completely bearish. This kind of indecisive and hesitant mentality is just the nourishment for a volatile market, relying on this emotion to swing back and forth.

As liquidity returns in January, the trend will emerge. The current situation of reduced volatility is essentially waiting for the macroeconomic indicators—especially regarding the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts next year.

The story of the catch-up in ETH is not over yet. The Layer2 ecosystem has seen quite a few positive developments recently, so hold onto your spot and don't get cut. The opportunity for $ETH is still there.

How to operate specifically?
Let's put aside the contracts for now. The combination of low liquidity and options expiration = pin risk, which is not worth it. The spot market is a more stable path—continue to place orders in batches, and if there is a sharp drop, it will be your opportunity to receive the New Year goods. Shift your attention to January, as it is highly likely to be the old routine of "mean reversion after the holidays."

I am currently controlling my Position at 50%, I don't chase when it rises, but I'm willing to add when it falls. The market always favors those who are patient — remember this phrase, the market quietly starts in despair, and rises while everyone hesitates. This Christmas week, if we hold steady, we have already won.