2025-12-23 00:24:49

Recently, there is an intriguing phenomenon: global conflicts are escalating frequently, and logically, BTC, as "digital gold", should rise along with it. Instead, it has done the opposite— not only did it not rise, but it also fell below the critical support level of 88000 USDT. This has led many to ponder: is the label of "digital gold" already outdated?

What this reflects is a deep-seated change in the market's positioning of BTC as an asset. Looking back at the 2024 halving wave, BTC was labeled as a safe-haven asset by the market due to its fixed supply and decentralization characteristics. At that time, whenever there was a disturbance in the world, BTC would rise steadily—geopolitical tensions? BTC takes off. Deteriorating economic expectations? BTC provides support. The logic chain is very clear.

But now the story has changed. The US dollar continues to strengthen, while BTC is under pressure during the same period. This seesaw effect indicates the problem - market risk appetite is changing. Although geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing (such as the US-Venezuela maritime standoff and the situation in Gaza), these factors have clearly weakened their support for BTC, indicating that the "digital gold" narrative is fading.

So what exactly is BTC now? My view is that BTC is more like a "global liquidity thermometer." Why do I say this? Because with the continued penetration of spot ETFs, BTC has evolved into a standard tool for institutions to allocate risk assets. Its price is no longer simply driven by risk aversion but increasingly follows the rhythm of global liquidity—Fed releasing liquidity? Funds pour into risk assets. Liquidity tightening? BTC is the first to be sold off.

BTC4,96%

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ChainWallflower

· 2025-12-25 19:02

When it broke below 88,000, I knew the story was about to change. The gold narrative should have died long ago. Now it's just a game of the dollar + liquidity, and institutions call the shots.

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GweiWatcher

· 2025-12-23 00:43

Once 88000 breaks, the bearish sentiment starts, it’s hilarious, this logic is the same as those who were bearish last year. --- The liquidity thermometer metaphor is indeed fresh, but in the end, it’s still bound to be led by the Fed. --- Is the digital gold label fading? It’s just the rhetoric of institutions harvesting retail investors. --- With the spot ETF coming in, BTC has changed from an anti-inflation tool to a risk asset, the gameplay has long changed. --- After all this, it’s still inversely linked to the dollar, what’s the difference from the stock market... --- This analysis seems a bit off, without the hedging attribute, what does BTC have left? It all depends on how the Fed plays its cards later. --- From gold substitute to liquidity barometer, this transition seems a bit fast. --- Really, as long as the dollar appreciates, BTC has to kneel, don’t talk about decentralization, it’s essentially still being played by institutions.

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