I recently looked at the trend of Ethereum, and the price is fluctuating in the range of $3051 to $3272, with a feeling that both bullish and bearish forces are about equal. I want to discuss in depth how ETH might move next, as there are quite a few influencing factors.

First, let's discuss the reasons for being bullish. The asset scale of the US spot Ethereum ETF has been growing since June of this year, and institutional enthusiasm is quite high. Additionally, several listed companies have started to incorporate ETH into their financial reserves, which essentially draws liquidity from the market and reduces circulation. From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum accounts for over half of the global stablecoin market share, and it has clear advantages in DeFi and real asset tokenization, all of which support long-term demand. On the policy side, the passage of the US GENIUS Act has made clear distinctions in the regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is a positive development for the long-term of the Ethereum ecosystem.

But the risks must also be acknowledged. Retail investors have been selling recently, creating an interesting opposition to institutional buying—institutions are lurking, while retail investors are fleeing. In this situation, it may be difficult for prices to rise. Additionally, there is the issue of competition; public chains like Solana are vying for territory in terms of user experience, fees, and new applications (Meme coins, AI-related projects), which poses a real challenge to Ethereum's advantageous position.

In summary, ETH is currently at a crossroads between institutions and retail investors, as well as bullish and bearish forces. The next direction will depend on which of these factors can break through first.