#大户持仓动态 December 22 midday commentary Gold has reached a new historical high, is there still room for rise after breaking the 4400 mark?

After the Asian market opened, the spot gold buying surged dramatically. It soared to a new high of 4400, setting a new annual record. Many traders are asking: how far can this wave of market go? Is it risky to get in now? Let's discuss this thoroughly today.

**Why is gold going so crazy? To put it simply, the core reason is - the arrival of the easing cycle**

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected by the market, while simultaneously releasing "hawkish" signals and quietly opening the liquidity tap. The dollar index fell to the 99-100 range in response, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. More importantly, the Federal Reserve has initiated short-term Treasury purchases, which effectively releases a new round of liquidity. In such an environment, the safe-haven value and anti-inflation characteristics of gold have been fully activated.

**Institutions have quietly started to lay out their plans long ago**

Here are some hard data: The latest research report from a large investment bank sets the target price for Q1 2026 at 4500, and the logic is very straightforward—"During a loose monetary cycle, the decline in real interest rates is the strongest driving force for gold's rise." In the short term, keep an eye on the 4450 level. The funding situation doesn't lie either: Since 2025, global gold ETFs have already absorbed 674 tons of gold, and institutions are quietly accumulating positions.

**How does the technical aspect look? Multiple time frames are all calling for a rise**

On the weekly chart: There are six consecutive bullish candles, with the 5-week and 10-week moving averages forming a golden cross and extending upwards. The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, which is a typical strong bullish setup. On the daily chart: Gold prices are firmly above the 5-day moving average, the red MACD bars are continuously expanding, and trading volume is rising in tandem, indicating sufficient short-term momentum. On the 4-hour chart: Although there was a pullback in the morning session, it quickly stabilized, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands providing strong support. Although the KDJ has entered the overbought zone, it has not yet formed a death cross, and after some fluctuation, it is highly likely to continue rising.

**Practical advice: Long in the 4395-4380 area, target 4405-4430**

**Two time windows to pay special attention to:**

①The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January 2026: If it announces a pause in interest rate cuts, gold may experience short-term fluctuations, and the key will be to observe whether the weekly 5-day moving average can hold.

② U.S. core inflation data release: If the data exceeds expectations on the upside, it may trigger a MACD top performance on the daily chart.

Seize the rhythm, manage risks, and opportunities are right in front of you.