New Possible Script

Firstly, not breaking below 84 means there is always the possibility of a rebound, and the current market has further rebounded to around 89.

I think we might see a slight increase during the Christmas period (24th-26th) without breaking 94.

But this rebound may not be the timing of a mid-bear market rebound.

Therefore, it may first go down to test the 84-80 range after Christmas, or slightly drop below 80500 and then recover, before experiencing a mid-bear market rebound.

Compared to 2022:

The top was reached on November 10, 2021, the bottom was first touched on January 24, and the rebound top was on March 28. It took about 2 months and 15 days to reach the bottom, and the rebound took about 2 months.

The corresponding decline took 1 month and 15 days from October 6 to November 21, which may be too short a time.

But if we compare it to the script from the second half of 2019, it is also possible that the time will be shortened accordingly.

Therefore, 80500 is the bottom of the first wave of decline, or it is reasonable to slightly break below 80500 (that is, to hit another low at the end of December or early January) (the former corresponds to the scenario in the second half of 2019 in terms of timing, while the latter corresponds to the scenario in 2022)

But the mid-bear market rebound is expected to start in January and may last until early February. Here I believe it may peak after the FOMC, rather than before the FOMC #加密市场小幅回暖 #2026行情预测 $BTC .