Next week we will enter the Christmas market.

The term used in English is "Santa Claus Rally", which refers to the performance of the S&P 500 during the week following Christmas, specifically the last 5 trading days of the current year and the first 2 trading days of the next year. Results show that in 79% of the cases, the Christmas rally is positive, with the highest increase during this week being 7.4% and the highest decrease being 4.2%. The average increase is around 1.3%.
Historically, the Christmas rally is not merely a simple seasonal statistical phenomenon, but rather a barometer of market risk appetite. If the market can rise as expected after Christmas and around New Year, it usually indicates that investors are still willing to allocate risk assets even in the absence of new macroeconomic stimulus. This confirms risk appetite at the end of the year and lays the emotional foundation for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, it often suggests that risk appetite has not recovered, making the market more prone to weakness or repeated fluctuations in January and even over a longer period.
From the perspective of institutional and seasonal factors, on one hand, after the tax-loss harvesting completed in mid-December, funds should flow back into the market. On the other hand, the decrease in institutional trading activity and transaction volume during the holiday period means that a small amount of buying can push the index upward while also lowering short-term volatility. In addition, the distribution of year-end bonuses and passive allocation funds from automatic deductions for pensions (such as 401k) may also provide support for market buying.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate finally dropped over the weekend, which indicates that the actual trading volume from real users is indeed quite low. The high turnover rate seen during the week is likely due to changes from quantitative or high-frequency short-term investors. What the weekend shows should reflect the actual changes of real holders. However, next week will mark the beginning of the Christmas market, and overall trading volume and turnover rate are expected to decline.
This Christmas market trend is essentially the expectation for the first quarter of 2026. If, in the context of seasonal benefits, an emotional vacuum, and gradually restored liquidity, the market still fails to form an effective upward trend, it likely indicates that the current high-interest rate environment's suppression of the economy has overshadowed the emotional boost brought by the holiday factors. #加密市场观察 $BTC $GT $ETH