Something big just happened in the bond market and most traders are sleeping on it. Japan’s 10-year bond yield has now broken above the 2008 financial crisis level after the BOJ raised rates to the highest point in almost 30 years 🇯🇵 And here’s the key thing most people miss 👇 When Japan yields rise sharply, crypto doesn’t dump immediately. It usually happens the following week. Look at the pattern: • Jan 2025 BOJ hike → BTC dumped 7% the next week • Mar 2025 BOJ hike → BTC dumped 10% the next week • Jul 2025 BOJ hike → BTC crashed 20% the next week That’s why the coming week matters. We could see another sharp move down — and that move may mark a local bottom 📉 But don’t confuse “local bottom” with the final bottom. Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin is still respecting the 4-year cycle structure. Yes, a bounce can happen. But a quick new ATH is unlikely. The real turning point comes only when liquidity returns. Here’s how it usually plays out 👇 • Rising Japan yields → investors sell risk assets • Stocks, crypto, even bonds face pressure • US yields rise further → debt becomes harder to sustain • When yields rise too far, central banks are forced to act History shows they never let bond markets break. What follows? • Policy reversals • Liquidity injections • QE ..just like 2020–2021 🖨️ Short term: • High yields = pressure on crypto • Volatility stays elevated Medium to long term: • Bond stress forces easing • Liquidity flows back • Crypto benefits the most This is why patience matters. Full resets create generational opportunities and the smart money is already waiting 🐼
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
#2025GateYearEndSummary 🚨 Next Week Could Be Dangerous for Crypto 🚨
Something big just happened in the bond market and most traders are sleeping on it.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield has now broken above the 2008 financial crisis level after the BOJ raised rates to the highest point in almost 30 years 🇯🇵
And here’s the key thing most people miss 👇
When Japan yields rise sharply, crypto doesn’t dump immediately.
It usually happens the following week.
Look at the pattern:
• Jan 2025 BOJ hike → BTC dumped 7% the next week
• Mar 2025 BOJ hike → BTC dumped 10% the next week
• Jul 2025 BOJ hike → BTC crashed 20% the next week
That’s why the coming week matters.
We could see another sharp move down — and that move may mark a local bottom 📉
But don’t confuse “local bottom” with the final bottom.
Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin is still respecting the 4-year cycle structure.
Yes, a bounce can happen.
But a quick new ATH is unlikely.
The real turning point comes only when liquidity returns.
Here’s how it usually plays out 👇
• Rising Japan yields → investors sell risk assets
• Stocks, crypto, even bonds face pressure
• US yields rise further → debt becomes harder to sustain
• When yields rise too far, central banks are forced to act
History shows they never let bond markets break.
What follows?
• Policy reversals
• Liquidity injections
• QE ..just like 2020–2021 🖨️
Short term:
• High yields = pressure on crypto
• Volatility stays elevated
Medium to long term:
• Bond stress forces easing
• Liquidity flows back
• Crypto benefits the most
This is why patience matters.
Full resets create generational opportunities and the smart money is already waiting 🐼