Is the key rebound point for SOL at $139? The next move in the real battle, considering institutional entry and technical analysis

Solana (SOL) recently experienced a "roller coaster"行情—rapidly dropping from $137 to $130, then gradually rebounding to $133. Behind this volatility, there are signals of institutional funds entering with real capital, as well as a contest over technical support levels. Is this a prelude to a rebound, or a trap to induce short positions?

Institutional Layout Opens New Imagination: Franklin Templeton’s SOL ETF Effect

Franklin Templeton’s spot SOL ETF launched, with an initial position of 17,000 SOL, corresponding to a capital of up to $2.4 million. The unique aspect of this entry lies in the innovative pledge mechanism—profits earned from institutional staking of SOL are directly incorporated into the ETF’s distribution plan, effectively opening a passive income channel for holders.

However, there is a gap between ideal and reality. In the first week, the SOL price did not rise on positive news; instead, it experienced a decline of over 20%, testing downward from the resistance level above. This reflects a typical phenomenon: major positive news is often fully priced in before release, and the market gradually digests institutional entry expectations. Short-term profit-taking by funds causes liquidity to exit, meaning subsequent行情 needs genuine capital support to continue. Currently, SOL reclaims around $133, and the real tug-of-war has just begun.

Technical Analysis: The Defense and Attack at the $130 Support Level

From a technical indicator perspective, SOL has hit a critical support at $130—considered a “life and death line” in the short term. If broken, the next support is expected at $128. If this level holds, the first resistance for a rebound is at $139, followed by two resistance zones at $143 and $146.

Two signals from the indicators warrant attention:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 39.59, approaching the oversold zone near 30, indicating waning selling momentum; the Money Flow Index (MFI) is also at 39.53, suggesting decreasing selling pressure. However, these indicators have not yet fully reversed, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.

Volume stands at 1.19 million contracts, half of the 5-day average of 2.91 million, reflecting a phase of volume contraction—both bulls and bears are temporarily accumulating, waiting for clearer directional signals.

Mid-term Outlook: Higher Probability of Consolidation and Bottoming

Considering the fundamental support from institutional entry and the protection of technical support levels, the bottom characteristics of this decline are relatively clear. In the short term, SOL is more likely to fluctuate and undergo minor recovery rather than skyrocket in a single move. This is because: first, the newly launched ETF products need to gradually establish market recognition, and institutions will not allow excessive price declines that damage product attractiveness; second, technical support levels have already played a buffering role.

However, the existence of resistance zones at $139, $143, and $146 limits the short-term upside potential. Breaking through these levels requires active participation of additional capital, but the current volume contraction indicates such strength has not yet fully accumulated.

Based on current data, SOL’s trend is more a dialogue between technical signals and institutional holdings—support levels’守护 and resistance tests will be key factors in determining the next move.