Short-term outlook (remaining time in December)

• Support levels: $86,000-$85,000 are key defense zones. If broken, it may test $83,000 or lower.
• Resistance levels: $90,000-$93,000. If broken, a quick rebound towards $100,000 is possible.
• Currently in a consolidation phase with low liquidity, easily driven by news. The Federal Reserve December meeting results (interest rate path) and year-end capital flows will be key catalysts.
• Some analysts believe December may continue to fluctuate or slightly decline, but whale accumulation (recently accumulating tens of thousands of BTC) indicates smart money is buying at lows, while weak hands are selling.
End-of-year and early 2026 forecasts
• Optimistic view: If macroeconomic conditions improve (rate cut expectations, institutional inflows), a rebound to $100,000-$120,000 is possible (some models predict $120,000 by the end of December).
• Cautious view: Institutions like Standard Chartered have lowered their 2025 year-end target to $100,000 (previously $200,000), citing weakening corporate treasury buying momentum.
• The overall market remains in a bull cycle (post-halving effect), but short-term volatility is high. In the long term, institutional adoption and limited supply still support upward movement, but caution is advised regarding overall risk asset adjustments.