CRYPTO FORECAST FOR 2026 BY BITWISE

🔸 Forecast 1: Bitcoin will break the 4-year cycle and establish a new all-time high.

Bitcoin has historically moved in 4-year cycles, but this view suggests that cycle will be broken due to weakening halving effects, expected interest rate cuts, better-controlled leverage, and increasingly clear legal frameworks. Institutional capital flow is expected to accelerate after the spot ETF launch, along with a more friendly policy environment, pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2026.

🔸 Forecast 2: Bitcoin will be less volatile than Nvidia stocks.

Bitcoin is still considered a highly volatile asset, but in 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was actually lower than Nvidia stocks. In the long term, Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased over the past decade thanks to institutional flows and ETFs, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.

🔸 Forecast 3: ETFs will buy more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as institutional demand accelerates.

Crypto prices are driven by supply and demand, and institutional investor demand has far exceeded new supply since the launch of crypto ETFs, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETFs purchasing double the amount of BTC mined since 2024. Moving into 2026, with known new supply and the potential for ETFs to continue buying beyond this level as large institutions officially participate, the supply-demand foundation for crypto prices is considered very strong.

🔸 Forecast 4: Crypto-related stocks will outperform traditional tech stocks.

Over the past three years, tech stocks have increased about 140%, but crypto stocks have performed even better, with the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 index rising by 585%. With an increasingly clear and friendly legal environment, this trend is expected to accelerate in 2026 as crypto companies expand their products, revenues, and M&A activities.

🔸 Forecast 5: Open betting volume on Polymarket will reach a new all-time high, surpassing the US election phase in 2024.

Polymarket boomed in 2024 but quickly cooled after the election. However, this platform is expected to surpass previous peaks in 2026 without waiting for another US presidential election. Opening to US users, backed by significant investments from ICE and expansion into new markets, are seen as main drivers of growth.

🔸 Forecast 6: Stablecoins will be blamed for causing instability in the currency of a developing country.

Stablecoins are growing rapidly, from about $205 billion to nearly $300 billion, and could reach $500 billion by the end of 2026, mainly driven by demand in high-inflation emerging markets. As crypto becomes more mainstream, some countries may blame stablecoins for weakening their national currencies, even though the real reason is a loss of confidence in the local fiat.

🔸 Forecast 7: On-chain vaults, also called “ETF 2.0,” will double total assets under management.

On-chain vaults are emerging as on-chain investment funds, and despite a sharp correction at the end of 2025, this sector is expected to mature quickly as institutional risk management standards are adopted. By 2026, high-quality curators could attract large capital flows, bringing on-chain vaults into the mainstream, and major financial media may refer to them as “ETF 2.0.”

🔸 Forecast 8: Ethereum and Solana will set new all-time highs if the CLARITY Act is passed.

Ethereum and Solana are viewed very positively because stablecoins and tokenization are major trends, and these two networks are likely to benefit the most. However, their breakout in 2026 depends on the US passing market structure legislation like the CLARITY Act, which, if approved, could push ETH and SOL to new all-time highs.

🔸 Forecast 9: Half of the Ivy League university endowments will invest in crypto.

After Brown University became the first Ivy League endowment to allocate to Bitcoin, many other top US Ivy League schools are expected to follow in 2026. If these funds allocate just about 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, it would have a significant impact and could trigger a wave of participation from pension funds, insurance companies, and other large organizations.

🔸 Forecast 10: Over 100 crypto-related ETFs will be launched in the US.

After years of rejection, the SEC has opened the door for crypto ETFs starting with Bitcoin in 2024 and Ethereum in 2025, then accelerated approval by issuing common listing standards, leading to a wave of new products like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs. With clearer legal frameworks and strong investor demand, 2026 is expected to see a boom in crypto ETFs with over 100 launches, with Bitwise predicted to lead the market in capital inflows.

🔸 Additional forecast: The correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market will decrease.

Data shows Bitcoin rarely has a high correlation with the stock market, with the 90-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 mostly below 0.50. By 2026, this correlation is expected to decline further as crypto-specific factors like legal developments and institutional flows drive prices, while stocks face valuation and growth pressures.

ℹ️ PS. These forecasts are just for reference, as the Bitwise 2025 forecasts were not very accurate:

🔸 Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana hit new highs; BTC > 200,000 USD
Result: Partially correct. All three hit new highs, but BTC did not reach 200,000 USD.

🔸 Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 higher than 2024
Result: Incorrect. 2025 ETF inflows were lower due to high volatility at year-end.

🔸 Coinbase surpasses Charles Schwab, stock > 700 USD
Result: Incorrect. Coinbase rose strongly and improved its platform but has not surpassed Schwab.

🔸 2025 is the year of crypto IPOs in the US
Result: Correct. Many major crypto companies IPOed, such as Circle, Gemini, Bullish.

🔸 Memecoin AI boom stronger than 2024
Result: Completely incorrect.

🔸 Number of countries holding Bitcoin doubles
Result: Not achieved. The US and some other countries participate but not doubled.

🔸 Coinbase joins S&P 500, Strategy joins Nasdaq 100
Result: Exactly correct.

🔸 US Department of Labor loosens crypto regulations in 401(k
Result: Correct. Regulations were lifted, and President Trump signed an executive order supporting crypto.

🔸 Stablecoins reach 400 billion USD thanks to new laws
Result: Close. Significant growth but not yet at 400 billion USD.

🔸 Tokenized assets surpass 50 billion USD
Result: No score due to changes in data reporting methods.

🔸 Bonus: Bitcoin > 1 million USD, surpassing gold by 2029
Result: Not yet time for assessment.

Overall, Bitwise is correct about major trends and market structure, but too optimistic about specific numbers and timing.