#市场触底了吗？ The panic index approaches extreme levels, cryptocurrencies continue to decline, Bitcoin hovers around 87,000 USD, Ethereum holds firm at the 3,000-point mark. What is the market waiting for?

As fear and greed indices continue to plunge into the "extreme fear" zone, Bitcoin struggles to stay above the 87,000 USD level, Ethereum clings to the 3,000-point life line, and the crypto market falls into a rare "silent panic." On one side, risk assets are being sold off collectively, institutional funds remain cautious; on the other side, giants like BitMine are contrarily increasing their Ethereum holdings. Behind this contradiction, the market is actually waiting for three key signals: a clear macro policy anchor, validation of asset fundamental divergence, and the arrival of a liquidity cycle turning point.

The primary thing the market is waiting for is a definitive macro policy exit. Currently, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have reached their highest since 2019. Persistent inflation and weak employment create a foggy outlook for monetary policy. As the "conductor" of global risk asset pricing, the Fed's hesitation directly fuels risk aversion. Cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile assets, are especially sensitive to liquidity changes—when borrowing costs remain high, institutions are reluctant to aggressively increase Bitcoin ETF holdings or venture into higher-risk areas. News of Japan's plans to adjust crypto tax policies adds more uncertainty, and this cross-market policy ambiguity worsens the already panicked market. Institutional investors' wait-and-see stance is not bearish; they are waiting for the Fed to provide a clear path to rate cuts. Only when policy expectations stabilize can risk assets have a foundation for rebound.

Secondly, the market is waiting for validation of fundamental divergence among assets. The divergence in Bitcoin and Ethereum trends has long revealed a split in market logic. Bitcoin's stagnation stems from its "digital gold" narrative lacking fundamental support: ETF fund inflows are weak, whale holdings remain at a loss, and short-term holders are selling at a negative profit margin—this trend has not yet reversed. Meanwhile, Ethereum's steadfastness benefits from institutional recognition of its fundamentals. BitMine increased its Ethereum holdings by 138,000 in a week, with total holdings surpassing 3.86 million. This confidence is driven by the scalability improvements from the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade and the continuous expansion of blockchain application scenarios. This divergence causes the market to remain cautious: can Bitcoin regain its safe-haven status? Will institutional accumulation of Ethereum translate into a broad rally? These questions require further fundamental data validation. The market is not doubting the long-term value of crypto assets but is waiting for clear signals of strength and weakness to adjust positions. Ultimately, the market is waiting for a liquidity cycle turning point. Recent liquidations involving 270,000 traders and $985 million in evaporated funds seem like panic releases but actually expose the liquidity crunch in the market.

The vitality of the crypto market depends on capital flow: when Bitcoin ETF shifts from a "money-absorbing weapon" to a net capital outflow, and retail investors, traumatized by the 2022 crash, dare not enter, it becomes difficult to activate the overall market relying only on contrarian moves by institutions like BitMine. Currently, the market is closely monitoring two major liquidity indicators: first, whether the Fed's balance sheet reduction slows down, which directly determines the supply of global risk capital; second, whether the Bank of Japan's December decision to raise interest rates shifts policy, potentially reshaping global capital flows. Liquidity is like the "blood" of the market—only when funds are willing to flow back into risk assets can the panic index decline and cryptocurrencies break out of sideways movement.

Behind the panic and hesitation lies the market's rational desire for certainty. Clarity in Fed policy, validation of crypto fundamentals, and the emergence of a liquidity turning point are the three key signals that will unlock the market's predicament. BitMine's contrarian accumulation has already revealed that long-term funds are targeting assets with solid fundamentals.