US voting outcome becomes a market "sentiment hub": How government operation recovery will shake up the crypto market

Latest data shows that the probability of the US government returning to normal operations before November 15th has risen to 98%, essentially settled. The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote and decide tomorrow morning at 8:00 (Beijing time), which means the suspense over “government shutdown dragging down the economy” will be answered tonight.

Why Political Risks Directly Impact the Crypto Market

On the surface, the US government shutdown is an internal Washington matter, but the crypto market’s sensitivity to “uncertainty” often exceeds its reaction to specific negative news. Previously, expectations around the shutdown had already caused US stocks and digital assets to experience several days of volatility. Now, as this uncertainty is about to dissipate, market sentiment will undergo its first round of recovery. Short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to ease, and this “risk dissipation” rebound is more direct than simple policy positive signals.

Two “Scenarios” for the Voting Outcome

Smooth Passage Scenario: If the House of Representatives votes successfully, the expected outcome will be fully realized. This may seem like good news, but in fact, it indicates that the pricing of known risks has already been completed. The market might first experience a slight pullback as “expectations fully released,” followed by a period of consolidation and fluctuation. Investors should then shift focus to other driving factors—such as Federal Reserve policy directions, corporate earnings reports, etc.

Obstructed Voting Scenario: Although the probability is very low, if the vote encounters obstacles, the crypto market will first undergo a rapid adjustment, then rebound as expectations ease. This “drop first, recover later” pattern often involves high volatility, testing investors’ psychological resilience.

How the Market Will Respond

The key is to recognize the nature of this vote: it is not a new positive catalyst but the realization of existing risks. The House of Representatives’ voting results will set the tone for market sentiment over the next two days. If it passes smoothly, there will be a short-term rebound followed by a wait-and-see phase; if there are surprises, a quick correction and recovery will ensue.

For traders, tonight’s voting outcome is a crucial reference for grasping the recent market rhythm. Managing risks well and responding flexibly based on actual trends is more important than predicting specific rises or falls.