The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has already soared to 96%, with little suspense remaining, just waiting for the official announcement on December 19. This matter will have a significant impact on the crypto market.

From a macro perspective, once the yen raises interest rates, international funds may flow back into the Japanese market, leading to a contraction in global liquidity. In this environment, it is normal for crypto assets to face short-term pressure.

More interesting are the on-chain changes. Recent tracking shows that large amounts of BTC are continuously flowing into exchanges, and on-chain activity has cooled down, indicating that some institutions and large holders are adjusting their positions in advance. This rhythm perfectly matches the timetable of rate hike expectations — it’s not a coincidence, but market pricing in advance.

Currently, market sentiment is somewhat cautious, and the probability of short-term oscillation or decline is higher. My advice is not to rush into buying the dip; let the bullets fly for a while, and wait until liquidity conditions become clearer before acting.

But from another perspective, rate hikes themselves will not change the long-term logic of a bull market. On the contrary, each such adjustment is an opportunity to re-strategize. The key is to control the pace and not be led astray by short-term noise. Continue to monitor on-chain data and policy developments, and adjust your strategy promptly once clear signals emerge.