The Bank of Japan is likely to make a significant decision at its policy meeting on December 18-19 — raising interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, hitting a new high since 1995. While this news may seem distant from us, it will actually trigger ripple effects across global capital markets, including risk assets like Bitcoin.

For a long time, Japan has been a source of the most accommodative liquidity worldwide, with its low interest rate policy attracting substantial arbitrage capital flows into high-risk assets globally. Once the Bank of Japan begins an interest rate hike cycle, it means the cost of borrowing global funds will rise, and hot money will gradually withdraw from various high-risk investments, returning to bank accounts to enjoy higher interest yields. This tightening of liquidity indeed puts short-term pressure on the crypto market, which relies heavily on incremental capital inflows.

Interestingly, despite this potential bearish outlook, Bitcoin's performance has been surprising. The current price hovers around $89,860, facing two clear resistance levels at $94,000 and $96,000. However, the support below remains solid — the three defense lines at $87,500, $85,600, and $84,000 are still intact. The price has been oscillating within this range, demonstrating resilience and not collapsing as expected.

This contradictory phenomenon is worth noting: macro liquidity is tightening, but technical support levels are holding strong. In the short term, the market needs to find a balance between these two forces.