#比特币价格分析 Looking back at Bitcoin price movements, I have witnessed too many ups and downs. Now, Polymarket predicts a 51% chance of reaching $100,000 again this year, which inevitably reminds me of the crazy bull market in 2021. At that time, many people firmly believed that Bitcoin would break through the $100,000 mark, but it ended up crashing. History is always surprisingly similar, but the details are different.

Does this prediction reflect overly optimistic market sentiment? Or is there some fundamental change supporting it? I tend to remain cautious. After all, the crypto market is highly cyclical, and blindly chasing highs often leads to painful lessons. In comparison, the 17% probability of reaching $110,000 and the 30% chance of falling below $80,000 seem more worth paying attention to.

Anyway, for veterans who have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, staying rational is crucial. Don't be blinded by short-term predictions; instead, focus on the long term and pay attention to the fundamental development of Bitcoin. After all, true value is the key to determining long-term trends.