In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, and rumors of Japan raising interest rates filled the air, but the reaction in the crypto circle was baffling—BTC and ETH did not surge as expected; instead, they fluctuated at high levels, with trading volume sluggish. Many retail investors complained: "Isn't a rate cut just flooding the market? Why isn't liquidity entering the market?" "Isn't Japan raising interest rates bad news? Why is it still resisting the fall?"

Actually, the core issue lies in many people's superficial understanding of "policy-driven markets."

**Before policies are implemented, major players have already acted**

A sobering fact is: the decisions of the Federal Reserve and Japan’s monetary moves you see today on news apps were anticipated and traded by large funds two weeks or even a month ago. Every policy shift is pre-discussed and pre-priced repeatedly. When the news is officially released, it is actually already the emotional "end point," not the beginning of a market trend.

This explains a strange phenomenon: when good news is announced, it’s actually the time for seasoned investors to offload positions; when negative rumors spread, the panic selling has already been absorbed, turning into a bottom-fishing opportunity. The result is the market remains stagnant, while retail investors chasing news and hot topics get caught in the crossfire.

**90% of retail investors fall into the trap of being led by news**

The key to price movements is never in the headlines but in whether funds are willing to continue entering the market. The main players’ positions are already set; all that remains is to wait. And most retail investors? Still flipping through news, chasing after rising prices and selling on dips. The big money has already aligned, while retail investors are still trying to catch up from the outside.