Bitcoin Price Under Pressure: BoJ Rate Hike Could Trigger Crash to $75,000

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin price at risk of a crash to $75 as a major BoJ risk looms Original Link:

Market Pressure and BoJ Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under intense pressure this weekend and may face deeper decline, potentially falling to $75,000 ahead of the Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

BTC is currently stuck at the psychological level of $90,000, approximately 29% below its year-to-date high, signaling a deep bear market phase.

The BoJ Rate Hike Impact

Data from prediction markets shows a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will hike rates by 5 basis points on December 19 as it combats elevated inflation.

This rate hike is significant for multiple reasons:

1. Central Bank Independence: The hike will reinforce BoJ independence against the current administration’s preference for low interest rates.

2. Fed-BoJ Divergence: The rate hike comes one week after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points (bringing the benchmark to 3.50%-3.75%). This divergence typically triggers unwinding of decades-old carry trade positions.

3. Historical Precedent: Bitcoin has historically dropped by double digits during BoJ rate hikes. The most severe decline occurred last year during the bank’s first rate hike in decades, with patterns showing:

   • March 2024: -23%
   • July 2024: -26%

Fed Policy Outlook

The Federal Reserve has guided to only one rate cut in 2026, lower than market expectations. While potential changes to Fed leadership may occur, other officials could serve as moderating forces, with three officials dissenting in the last meeting.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators suggest further downside ahead for Bitcoin:

• Death Cross Pattern: Already formed on the daily chart
• Bearish Flag Formation: BTC is forming a bearish flag pattern (vertical line with ascending channel), historically signaling further downside
• Key Indicators: BTC remains below the Ichimoku cloud and Supertrend indicators, confirming bear market control

Price Targets

The most likely scenario is continued decline with initial targets at:

• November Low: $80,000
• Secondary Support: $74,500 (April 2024 low)

A break below $80,000 would confirm extended downside toward the $74,500 level.