Bitcoin($BTC) cycle, dominated by "politics and liquidity" rather than halving… Trump's election becomes a variable

10x Research Director Marcus Thielen claims that the iconic four-year market cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) remains valid, but its main driving factors have changed from the past. He analyzes that politics and liquidity are now key variables, replacing supply reduction as an intrinsic factor.

He recently stated on the ‘The Wolf Of All Streets’ podcast: “The assessment that the four-year cycle has been broken does not capture the essence.” “The current cycle still exists, but Bitcoin halving no longer dominates its trend.” He explained that instead, the US election cycle, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and capital inflows into risk assets are driving forces.

Thielen specifically pointed out the years when Bitcoin markets formed major peaks: 2013, 2017, and 2021. He emphasized that these peaks all occurred in the fourth quarter, which is less related to the Bitcoin halving schedule and more closely tied to volatility in American politics and the unpredictability brought by presidential elections. In fact, the exact timing of Bitcoin halving changes each year, whereas the US election has a fixed structure—a four-year cycle held in early November.

He analyzed: “There is uncertainty about whether the ruling party may lose a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives.” “Even now, President Trump or the Republican Party could lose many seats, making it difficult for Trump to implement his policies.”

Thielen points out that the key drivers of Bitcoin cycles are shifting toward political events, emphasizing that investors need to pay attention not only to the mechanical cycle of ‘halving,’ but also to broader political and liquidity trends.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Interpretation

The pendulum of Bitcoin price cycles is shifting from halving to political events and liquidity. This indicates that upcoming election schedules and changes in monetary policy could directly impact the cryptocurrency market.

💡 Strategic Highlights

Compared to a buy strategy based solely on halving, macro analysis considering US election schedules becomes more important. Special attention should be paid to year-end market trends and asset reallocation flows.

📘 Terminology Explanation

Bitcoin halving: An event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the mining reward of Bitcoin by half, which triggers price increase expectations through supply reduction.

Risk assets: Investment assets with high yields and high volatility. Cryptocurrencies are a representative risk asset.

TP AI Caution

This article uses a language model based on TokenPost.ai for summarization. The main content of the original article may be omitted or inconsistent with facts.