2025-12-13 07:21:05

The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, recently stated that he has essentially cemented the rate hike on December 19. He said that the central bank is gradually approaching its inflation target, and once the economic outlook is confirmed, it will proceed with rate hikes. This is a clear message to the market to prepare. The good news is that he gave an early indication, so when the rate hike is announced next Friday to reach 0.75%, the market won't crash due to the suddenness—this reaction is much more rational than the unexpected plunge on August 5.

But the real key point is that Ueda explicitly said this won't be a one-time adjustment. He mentioned that the pace of rate hikes will continue until the policy rate returns to the natural rate level. This statement shatters the market's illusion of "once done, it's over." 0.75% is just a midpoint, not the final destination. The question is—what exactly is the natural rate? If it's set at 1.0%, most can accept it; but if it rises to 1.5% or higher, the entire valuation system of U.S. stocks and the crypto market will need to be readjusted downward.

The only slight reassurance is the word "slow." He said the easing of monetary policy will be adjusted gradually, meaning there won't be a wave of aggressive rate hikes. Compared to market fears of rapid tightening, a slow approach at least provides the market and the crypto space with a window to adapt.

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WhaleWatcher

· 2025-12-15 07:38

Here comes the harvest again. If the natural interest rate is 1.5%, the crypto world can really just lie flat this time.

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AlgoAlchemist

· 2025-12-13 07:47

Slow? Ha, that word sounds just like a synonym for boiling a frog in warm water... --- 0.75% is just the beginning. The natural rate is the real death cross; be mentally prepared. --- Ueda's move this time is like a "preemptive spoiler." No wonder the market's reaction wasn't that intense. Let's watch the show next Friday. --- Natural rate reaching 1.5%? Then the valuation system will truly collapse, and the crypto world is probably about to go through another round of cleansing. --- Slow rate hikes sound gentle, but persistently pushing upward can have quite a powerful impact in the end. --- Isn't this just saying "I will kill you slowly"? It's even more uncomfortable than a quick, decisive cut. --- The key is that no one knows where the true bottom line of the natural rate is. That is the greatest uncertainty. --- Ha, the phrase "middle ground" reminds me that in history, many "middle ground" ended up being the final destination. --- Giving the market an adaptation window? I think it's just a time for everyone to adjust their positions and set stop-losses.

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DegenDreamer

· 2025-12-13 07:43

0.75% is still just the appetizer... The joke about the natural interest rate is really brilliant, who the heck knows what Ueda is thinking.

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NoodlesOrTokens

· 2025-12-13 07:42

Here comes the harvest again, slow or not, it's still a cut.

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RektDetective

· 2025-12-13 07:31

0.75% is just the appetizer; the real feast is still to come. --- Ueda's move this time is truly aggressive, directly crushing market hopes. --- Slow rate hikes sound good, but if the natural rate really hits 1.5%, can the crypto world still survive? --- Releasing the news early is better than the quiet attack in August, at least allowing some psychological preparation. --- It's "slow" and "continuous" again, which translates to never-ending. --- Who sets the natural rate? Why not just state the number directly instead of dangling it? --- Next Friday is probably going to be bloody, but at least it won't be caught off guard. --- 0.75% finally arrived; now it's just a matter of how high it can go from here. --- Slow progress? Then we might have to watch the chips gradually shrink.

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