2025-12-13 07:01:56

#美联储降息 Long-term government bond yields are telling the truth, while your coins might be listening to falsehoods

Latest data just came in: the US 30-year Treasury yield surged to 4.86%, a new high in three months. The contrast is striking—short-term bond yields are easing, and the market is betting on rate cuts. But what does the spike in long-term yields mean? Institutional investors are voting with real money: the beast of inflation is still alive and has not been subdued.

Federal Reserve hawkish officials Goolsby and Schmeid recently took a firm stance, explicitly opposing rate cuts, for straightforward reasons—fear of reigniting inflation. So the current situation is: there’s hope for relief in the short term, but the shadow of long-term tightening remains.

What does this mean for crypto assets? Long-term yields are the benchmark for global pricing; as they rise, valuations of all assets need to come down. Those bubbles inflated by easy liquidity are now facing a risk of "weaning off." If inflation doesn’t subside, central banks won’t dare to truly unleash liquidity, and money in the market will become tighter and tighter. The crypto space essentially reflects the global liquidity premium—when liquidity shrinks, the first to suffer are overvalued, high-risk assets.

Looking from another angle, what should you do now? Three core points:

1. Stop dreaming that rate cuts = bull market. Control over inflation isn’t in the Federal Reserve’s hands; a long-term tightening regime may become the new normal.
2. Keep a close eye on the 30-year Treasury yield—it’s more honest than candlestick charts. When yields go up, consider reducing your positions and keeping more cash on hand.
3. Shift from short-term trading to long-term dollar-cost averaging. Invest only in core assets you truly believe in for three years or more. Clear out small coins and concept tokens.

The market is listening to the Fed’s words, but the data and curves are the real legs. When long-term yields rise, those positions relying on luck will be the first to collapse. $BTC

BTC4,29%

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TokenDustCollector

· 2025-12-15 21:15

As the long-term yield rises, it's time to reduce your holdings. Don't keep hoping that rate cuts will rescue the market.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 2025-12-14 16:23

A long-term yield of 4.86% is a true signal; short-term rate cuts are just illusions. The crypto world should wake up.

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MEVVictimAlliance

· 2025-12-13 07:31

The 30-year government bond is already at 4.86, yet you're still dreaming of a rate cut and a bull market. Wake up. --- Inflation isn't dead; liquidity will be squeezed sooner or later. The crypto circle was the first to flip, no problem with that. --- Honestly, I'm really tired of bottom-fishing small coins right now. --- Focusing on government bond yields is much more reliable than watching K-lines. I’ve taken that to heart. --- Long-term dollar-cost averaging into core assets, others should indeed be cleared out. It makes sense. --- The Federal Reserve's words are misleading; data is the real boss. Now I understand. --- Tsk, about to cut positions again. It's time to dump those garbage coins in my hands. --- Tightening as the new normal? Then I might as well admit defeat on my high-leverage positions. --- Wait, are you saying I shouldn't go all-in now? That just clicked with me.

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MEVHunterBearish

· 2025-12-13 07:21

With such high long-term yields, you should have reduced your position earlier. Stop dreaming about a rate cut.

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TideReceder

· 2025-12-13 07:17

A long-term yield soars, and the coin has to kneel along with it—this logic makes perfect sense. Those still dreaming of interest rate cuts are truly deluded. The 30-year bond line reveals the real truth, more brutal than any candlestick chart.

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GasFeeBeggar

· 2025-12-13 07:07

Is this another trick to fool us into thinking interest rates will be cut? We should have been watching the 30-year bond yield all along; it’s not fooling me at all.

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