Recently, the price of buying U has been steadily rising, and many people are starting to ponder the underlying logic. Some major institutions have even hinted that the US dollar will depreciate by 20%, which further stirs anxiety. But upon closer inspection, the RMB exchange rate's strength is actually a sign of a policy shift.

Remember the China-US trade war in 2018? At that time, the direct approach was to let the RMB depreciate quickly to hedge against the tariffs imposed by the US. That move was indeed effective—China's economic growth momentum was strong, and currency depreciation wouldn't trigger a capital flight, making it highly efficient.

Now, things are different. The country faces insufficient domestic demand and deflationary pressure, requiring a boost in investment and consumption. At this critical juncture, allowing the RMB to depreciate significantly could scare away foreign investment and worsen the already tight liquidity. Therefore, the decision-makers have shifted their approach.

What is the main strategy now? Direct fiscal intervention. In the first half of 2025, export rebates reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. This is not empty talk; it’s real money reducing corporate costs. The recently convened Central Economic Work Conference also confirmed this direction—stabilizing investment and maintaining domestic demand will be the focus for next year.

In other words, instead of letting the exchange rate fall freely, it’s better to use fiscal subsidies to ensure export competitiveness. This shift reflects a deep change in the economic environment. For those holding stablecoins like USDC and USDT, a strong RMB actually means a change in purchasing power. Understanding the underlying policy logic can help you avoid being easily swayed by market sentiment.