Recently, discussions about Japan potentially raising interest rates on December 19 have been overwhelming. Many people are portraying this as very serious, claiming that arbitrage funds will withdraw on a large scale, even describing it as a "financial bomb." However, a deeper analysis reveals that this logic is actually unfounded.

The timeline makes this quite clear. Since Japan began its rate hike cycle in 2024, it has already increased interest rates three times in a row. If there is indeed a fourth hike in December, that will be the fourth time. This entire process has stretched over about two years, so it’s not a sudden attack. During this long period, funds engaged in arbitrage had plenty of opportunities to adjust their positions and gradually withdraw. A sudden large-scale withdrawal now? The probability is really low.

Looking deeper, even if this rate hike does trigger some capital outflows, industry experts estimate the scale to be about 2 trillion yen. Compared to the massive size of the global financial markets, this number isn’t really significant. Causing real turbulence in the entire financial ecosystem would still be quite difficult.

Instead of being frightened and panicked, it’s better to pay more attention to how the rate hike impacts the crypto market itself. Changes in arbitrage windows, liquidity adjustments—these are what crypto enthusiasts should really keep an eye on.