#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: The daily chart now clearly indicates a rebound need. Regarding the golden cross on the daily chart, we need to pay attention to whether it runs in a sideways or slightly expanded manner, or if it directly initiates a strong upward move followed by a quick decline.
2️⃣ Macro Influence of Capital Flow, On-Chain Data & Exchange Dynamics: Despite the Fed's rate cut, its hawkish warnings on inflation have sparked market concerns about subsequent easing steps, leading to risk asset sell-offs. Meanwhile, the Fed resuming Treasury purchases (a form of QE) is seen as a potential long-term liquidity boost, with the market gradually pricing in this effect. Technical view: Several analysts point out that the $88,000-$89,000 zone is a critical demand area where multiple technical indicators converge. If this zone is effectively broken downward, it could open the way towards $85,000. The current rebound is seen as a test of this zone. Market behavior: Some analysts describe the current volatility as a "final shakeout," a common stage before trend reversal where the market clears out hesitant positions. Long-term target: Standard Chartered reaffirms its year-end target of $100,000 but emphasizes that the upward path will mainly be driven by capital inflows into spot ETFs.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Key position defense at (89500), operate within the range before breaking. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows before confirming the direction. If the price reaches the $95000-$96000 zone with clear signs of stagnation (such as double tops or bearish engulfing patterns), and weakness is observed, consider short positions. Stop loss at a break below the $96000 level, near $85000. If a strong breakout above $96000 occurs, look towards $102000.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Repeated macro sentiment risks: Market interpretation of Fed policies may change with new economic data, increasing volatility. High leverage liquidation risk: Recent market volatility has led to significant liquidation of leveraged positions (e.g., over $400 million liquidated within hours after a decision), and this risk remains in high-volatility environments. “Fake breakout” traps: Near critical levels, beware of rapid upward or downward piercing that can trigger false breakouts; wait for candle confirmation before acting.