#美联储降息 [12.12 Market Observation] Macroeconomic Weakness Remains, Turnover Cycle Logic Still Valid

Today, the US initial jobless claims data showed a big move—surging to 236,000, which directly reinforced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the future. From an asset allocation perspective, this is actually a positive signal for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and the liquidity environment may remain loose.

Looking at BTC’s trend, it is currently in a chip transfer period of about 1-2 months. What does that mean? It indicates that short-term traders are gradually exiting, while institutions and long-term funds are quietly accumulating. This is a typical bottoming pattern—there are fluctuations, but the overall direction remains unchanged.

There are three forces supporting the market:
✓ Institutions continue to increase holdings
✓ Expectations of Fed rate cuts are becoming more solid
✓ Policy attitudes towards cryptocurrencies are improving

The operational approach is to: gradually and intermittently allocate to core coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and wait until the trend is fully confirmed and a new high is broken before adding more. Don’t rush; pacing is very important.

Risks to watch out for: macro factors and market sentiment are still prone to fluctuations, so position discipline is necessary—manage risk exposure carefully, avoid chasing highs, and don’t hold full positions. Staying steady will allow for a longer journey.