Ethereum$ETH Trading Strategy for Today

Bullish View ( Outlook )

· Core View and Target: Institutional continuous buying, supply tightening, short-term target levels at $3,350 - $3,410.
· Main Basis:
· Institutional Behavior: Large institutions (such as BitMine) continued to accumulate this week, whale addresses have increased holdings by over 934,000 ETH (approximately $30 billion) in the past three weeks.
· Funds and Demand: Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $177.6 million on Tuesday, the highest since October. Exchange-held ETH supply ratio dropped to a historic low of 8.7%, indicating reduced selling pressure.
· Technical Pattern: Price remains above the key neckline at $2,710, and the potential "inverted head and shoulders" bullish pattern remains valid.

Bearish View ( Cautious/Pessimistic )

· Core View and Warning: Price breaks below key support, technical pattern weakens, short-term risk increases.
· Main Basis:
· Price Movement: Intraday price has broken below the $3,200 round number.
· Technical Risk: A potential "head and shoulders" bearish pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart. If the neckline at $2,500 fails, the theoretical decline targets $2,000.
· Market Sentiment: Some whale long positions with high leverage are already at unrealized losses, facing liquidation risk. Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has entered the "Optimistic-Anxious" zone, which may trigger profit-taking.

· Important Resistance Levels:
· $3,250 - $3,350: Recently tested resistance zone.
· $3,470 - $3,500: Critical strong resistance area; a breakout could open upward space.
· Key Support Levels:
· $3,100 - $3,150: Recent important support; breaking below may accelerate decline.
· $2,850 - $2,800: Secondary support zone below.
· $2,710: The "inverted head and shoulders" pattern's lifeline; a breakdown invalidates the bullish pattern.
· Signals to Watch:
· Technical Indicators: RSI and Stochastic are showing short-term overbought signs, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
· Macro Events: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision may impact liquidity across the entire crypto market and is a major source of uncertainty. #美联储降息预测