BTC’s weekly EMA warning: A 3-Cycle macro pattern is repeating

Across the last three major Bitcoin cycles from 2018, 2021–2022, and now 2024–2025, the same structural signal has appeared before each deep bear market phase:

The Sequence:

Price closes multiple weeks below the 50-week EMA

BTC attempts a reclaim and fails

The 100-week EMA acts as temporary support

Once that support gives way → macro capitulation unfolds

This behavior is visible:

In 2018 before the 6k floor broke

In 2022 before the 36k floor broke

And it’s forming again right now in 2025

Bitcoin doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.
When the market structure at the weekly level aligns across three cycles, it becomes a signal worth respecting.

The coming retest of the 50-week EMA will determine the macro direction for the next 6–12 months.
A clean reclaim of the 50-week EMA would technically break the pattern, but based on current structure, liquidity behavior, and weekly momentum, the probability of such a reclaim looks extremely low.
Until the market proves otherwise, the burden of proof is on the bulls, not the bears.
A failure reinforces it.

📉 Bitcoin Weekly EMA Warning: A Triple Cycle Macro Pattern Is Repeating

Looking at the three major Bitcoin cycles in 2018, 2021-2022, and the current 2024-2025, the same structural signals have appeared before each deep bear market:

1. Price closes multiple weeks below the 50-week EMA
2. Bitcoin attempts to reclaim this EMA but fails
3. The 100-week EMA acts as temporary support
4. Once that support is broken → macro capitulation unfolds

This pattern is clearly visible at:
- The 2018 bottom before the 6k break
- The 2022 bottom before the 36k break
- Currently in 2025 as it forms again

Bitcoin may not simply repeat history, but it often rhymes. When the weekly market structure resonates across three cycles, it becomes a technical signal worth paying attention to.

The upcoming retest of the 50-week EMA will determine the macro trend for the next 6-12 months. A successful reclaim of the 50-week EMA would break the pattern, but based on current market structure, liquidity dynamics, and weekly momentum, the chances of such a reclaim are extremely low. Until the market shows clear reversal signals, the burden of proof lies with the bulls, not the bears. A failure to reclaim would further reinforce the current bearish structure.