[Dragging Out Time! After December Rate Cut, Powell Remains Neutral, Market Not Buying It!]



Tonight, Powell's speech leaned toward neutral, which won't trigger short-term market moves but rather delay:
- The future rate cut capacity is 60-75 basis points, already part of next year's narrative, but no commitment to continue rate cuts in the months following December.
- Once the effects of tariffs weaken, inflation will also decrease, but Q1 of next year might see the peak of tariff pass-through to goods, with expected inflation possibly rising in the first quarter. Warning of inflation risks.
- Unemployment rate projected at 4.4%, long-term at 4.2%. The September unemployment rate hit 4.4%, at a critical point, with employment still at risk.
- Starting January, the Fed will purchase short-term debt, $40 billion monthly, a technical expansion of the balance sheet, with no clear duration, defensive rather than stimulative.

The market has already digested the sentiment of rate cuts for now. Additionally, from next week, yen rate hikes will become a market focus. Short-term market sentiment is unlikely to be very optimistic.
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