Recently, in reviewing the trend of several rounds of bull markets, I found a pattern - every time it rises by about 1,000 points, there must be a monthly level adjustment.

The time window is usually three months, and the retracement range fluctuates within 100 points above and below the May moving average. Beyond that? The trend may have changed.

Since the beginning of April, the index has rushed all the way from 3040 to 4034, a full 1,000 points. The black line fell by 1.67% in November, just stepping back on the May moving average. Now it has been fluctuating sideways around 4,000 points for almost three months, and the adjustment is almost in place according to the monthly level.

The May moving average has moved up to 3897 points. This week's lowest hit of 3859 points and then rebounded quickly, and the probability of a second decline is not high. This position is likely to be the floor price this month.

What's next? If calculated according to the upside of 1,000 points, starting from 4,034, the target is around 5,034 - almost touching the high of 5,178 in the previous round. As early as this year, at the latest in January next year, a new round of main promotion may be launched.

In addition, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, which is a catalyst for global market sentiment. Coupled with the recent entry of insurance funds and the improvement of liquidity, the external environment is also warming.

Can it stand above 4,000 points in December? See.